Walk down Habib Bourguiba Avenue in Tunis, and you'll hear the same grumble from taxi drivers and grocers alike. Prices keep climbing, but wallets stay thin. Nearly seven years after Kais Saied seized extraordinary powers in July 2021, promising a complete overhaul of the state, the burning question isn't political ideology anymore. It's dollars and dinars.
Official reports paint a picture of steady survival. Yet, everyday life tells a different story. If you look past the headline numbers, you find an economy caught in a holding pattern of high debt, persistent inflation, and stark youth unemployment.
Growth Figures Versus Grocery Prices
The Tunisian government loves to talk about resilience. Gross domestic product grew by 2.3 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, beating the previous quarter's pace. But state budgets envisioned much higher growth. More importantly, macro statistics don't pay for lamb or poultry.
Inflation has settled around 5.6 percent, but food inflation remains a brutal outlier. Meat, fruit, and poultry prices have surged well into double digits. When the cost of basic food items jumps sixteen percent, households feel squeezed regardless of what the central bank says about cooling inflation. To understand the full picture, we recommend the detailed article by USA.gov.
Economist Ridha Chkoundali points out a harsh reality. Average inflation was higher during Saied's years in power compared to the previous administration. When prices compound year after year faster than salaries rise, purchasing power shatters.
The Quiet Crisis of Employment
You can't talk about Tunisia's economy without confronting the brutal math of the labor market. Overall unemployment sits near 14.9 percent. That's a slight drop from pandemic highs, but dig into the demographics and the optimism evaporates.
Youth unemployment among people aged 15 to 24 hovers above 35 percent. For university graduates, it's roughly 26 percent. Degrees don't guarantee stability anymore. Thousands of young Tunisians view irregular migration across the Mediterranean as their only viable career path.
Private investment remains sluggish. Local businesses struggle to secure funding because the state relies heavily on domestic banks to finance its debt. When the government absorbs billions of dinars locally to keep public services running, private companies get starved of credit. Without credit, companies don't expand. Without expansion, they don't hire.
The War on Speculation
Saied staked his populist credibility on fighting monopolies, price gouging, and secret warehouses hoarding subsidized goods. State television frequently broadcasts raids on suspected speculators.
The strategy plays well politically. Citizens desperate for subsidized sugar, flour, or milk want someone to blame for empty shelves. Critics argue that blaming merchants misses the broader point. When state-run importers face severe foreign currency shortages, basic commodities run dry. Policing distribution networks doesn't fix a supply chain starved of hard currency.
Navigating the Debt Trap
Tunisia's relationship with international lenders remains tense. Saied has repeatedly rejected foreign dictates, insisting that structural adjustments from abroad would crush the poor. He talks of sovereignty and self-reliance.
Yet relying entirely on internal financing has limits. Public debt remains high, and foreign reserves face constant pressure. The state continues to walk a tightrope between servicing foreign debt obligations and paying public sector salaries.
Seven years into this political experiment, the economic verdict is stark. Saied has managed to keep the state from collapsing under severe external shocks. He hasn't managed to build a dynamic economy that gives young Tunisians a reason to stay home.
